Arenas Armilla 2–0 Torre del Mar: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torre del Mar

9/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla38%

×Draw28%

Torre del Mar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchTorre del Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Arenas Armilla

1.23

Torre del Mar

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.10

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Torre del Mar

1.17

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Torre del Mar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Torre del Mar →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

66%

Arenas Armilla or Torre del Mar

72%

Draw or Torre del Mar

62%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

17%

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

71%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

35%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

13%

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

68%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

32%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

53%

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

38%

level

28%

Torre del Mar scores more

34%

Arenas Armilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff