Arenas Armilla 0–2 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Jaén

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla37%

×Draw28%

Real Jaén35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Arenas Armilla

1.16

Real Jaén

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

1.10

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Real Jaén →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

65%

Arenas Armilla or Real Jaén

72%

Draw or Real Jaén

63%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

15%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

69%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

32%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

11%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

68%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

31%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

51%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

37%

level

28%

Real Jaén scores more

35%

Arenas Armilla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 0–2 Real Jaén

Real Jaén beat Arenas Armilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 0–2 Real Jaén