Arenas Armilla 3–2 Malaga City: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Malaga City

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arenas Armilla55%

×Draw25%

Malaga City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchMalaga City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.89

Arenas Armilla

1.63

Malaga City

0.89

Arenas Armilla creates 83% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Malaga City

0.67

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Malaga City

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Malaga City →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

79%

Arenas Armilla or Malaga City

75%

Draw or Malaga City

45%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

29%

Malaga City wins by 2+

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

80%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

48%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

22%

Malaga City 1+ goals

59%

Malaga City 2+ goals

22%

Malaga City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

73%

Malaga City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

55%

level

25%

Malaga City scores more

21%

Arenas Armilla at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City

Arenas Armilla beat Malaga City 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City