Arenas Armilla 3–0 Huracán Melilla: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huracán Melilla

10/22/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arenas Armilla83%

×Draw11%

Huracán Melilla5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchHuracán Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.65

Arenas Armilla

2.98

Huracán Melilla

0.65

Arenas Armilla creates 358% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

0.20

1.10

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Huracán Melilla

0.20

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Huracán Melilla

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Huracán Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

95%

Arenas Armilla or Huracán Melilla

89%

Draw or Huracán Melilla

17%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

64%

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

95%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

79%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

56%

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals

48%

Huracán Melilla 2+ goals

14%

Huracán Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

94%

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

83%

level

11%

Huracán Melilla scores more

Arenas Armilla at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Huracán Melilla

Arenas Armilla beat Huracán Melilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Huracán Melilla