Arenas Armilla 2–0 Huétor Tájar: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huétor Tájar

12/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla43%

×Draw27%

Huétor Tájar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchHuétor Tájar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.10

Arenas Armilla

1.37

Huétor Tájar

1.10

Arenas Armilla creates 25% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

1.29

creates per match

1.11

1.10

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Huétor Tájar

1.11

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Huétor Tájar

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Huétor Tájar →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

70%

Arenas Armilla or Huétor Tájar

73%

Draw or Huétor Tájar

57%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

20%

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

75%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

40%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

16%

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

67%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

30%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

59%

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

43%

level

27%

Huétor Tájar scores more

30%

Arenas Armilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 2–0 Huétor Tájar

Arenas Armilla beat Huétor Tájar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 2–0 Huétor Tájar