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Arenas Armilla vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla42%
×Draw27%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.37
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.13

Arenas Armilla creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
69%
Arenas Armilla or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
73%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
58%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
20%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
75%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
40%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
16%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
68%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
31%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
58%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
42%
level
27%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
31%

Arenas Armilla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Arenas Armilla and Ciudad de Torredonjimeno drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.