Arenal 0–3 Poblense: Result & Stats

Arenal

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Poblense

11/4/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal21%

×Draw25%

Poblense54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenalExpected goals in this matchPoblense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.58

Arenal

0.89

Poblense

1.58

Poblense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

1.06

creates per match

1.63

1.53

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Arenal

1.06

Poblense

1.63

allows per match

Arenal

1.53

Poblense

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par

Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Poblense →

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arenal or draw

46%

Arenal or Poblense

75%

Draw or Poblense

79%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+

Poblense wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals

59%

Arenal 2+ goals

22%

Arenal 3+ goals

Poblense 1+ goals

79%

Poblense 2+ goals

47%

Poblense 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)

28%

Poblense (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Poblense attack 1.63 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arenal scores more

21%

level

25%

Poblense scores more

54%

Poblense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff