Ards 2–2 Crusaders FC: Result & Stats | League #408

Ards

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crusaders FC

C. McClean 54'

M. Kelly 25'

Ronan Hale 83'

D. Caddell 69'

3/23/2019

League #408 · Round 33Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ards26%

×Draw21%

Crusaders FC53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArdsExpected goals in this matchCrusaders FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.12

Ards

1.43

Crusaders FC

2.12

Crusaders FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 30 away

1.33

creates per match

1.90

2.33

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ards

1.33

Crusaders FC

1.90

allows per match

Ards

2.33

Crusaders FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ards+0.00on par

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ards ↓

Crusaders FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ards or draw

47%

Ards or Crusaders FC

79%

Draw or Crusaders FC

74%

Winning margin

Ards wins by 2+

11%

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Ards 1+ goals

76%

Ards 2+ goals

42%

Ards 3+ goals

17%

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

88%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

62%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Ards (draw refunded)

33%

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ards at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Crusaders FC away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ards attack 1.33 + Crusaders FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Crusaders FC attack 1.90 + Ards defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ards scores more

26%

level

21%

Crusaders FC scores more

53%

Crusaders FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Kelly

54'

C. McClean

59'

D. Cushley← M. Snoddy

69'

D. Caddell

74'

K. Cherry← M. Kelly

79'

M. Ruddy← M. McChrystal

82'

H. Beverland← Rory Hale

83'

Ronan Hale

90+3'

M. McLellan← D. Henderson

Ards

Crusaders

1

O'Neill

8

Ward

3

▼

McChrysta

16

Owens

12

⚽

Caddell

14

Forsythe

19

▼

Snoddy

45

▼

Hale

18

Owens

28

McGinley

40

⚽

Hale

1

Johnston

5

Taylor

17

⚽

4

22

16

3

11

12

53

▼

Henderson

9

⚽

▼

Kelly

Manager: W. Feeney

74'▲K. Cherry←▼M. Kelly

90+3'▲M. McLellan←▼D. Henderson

Ards substitutes

8Cherry10McLellan24Bennett30Davidson52Smith54McCawl34Shearer

Manager: S. Baxter

59'▲D. Cushley←▼M. Snoddy

79'▲M. Ruddy←▼M. McChrystal

82'▲H. Beverland←▼Rory Hale

Crusaders FC substitutes

11Cushley17Ruddy4Beverland6Coates7Lowry21Thompson30Doherty