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Ardoi vs Lagunak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Ardoi
Ardoi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lagunak
Lagunak
2/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ardoi51%
×Draw25%
Lagunak24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardoi
1.65
Lagunak
1.06

Ardoi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ardoi
1.35
Lagunak
1.16

allows per match

Ardoi
0.96
Lagunak
1.94

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par
Lagunak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Lagunak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw
76%
Ardoi or Lagunak
75%
Draw or Lagunak
49%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+
27%
Lagunak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals
81%
Ardoi 2+ goals
49%
Ardoi 3+ goals
23%
Lagunak 1+ goals
65%
Lagunak 2+ goals
29%
Lagunak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)
68%
Lagunak (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Lagunak away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Lagunak defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lagunak attack 1.16 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ardoi scores more
51%
level
25%
Lagunak scores more
24%

Ardoi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ardoi 1 – 2 Lagunak

Lagunak beat Ardoi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Pinar 1 in Zizur Mayor.