Ardoi 1–0 Bidezarra: Result & Stats

Ardoi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidezarra

10/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ardoi45%

×Draw27%

Bidezarra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArdoiExpected goals in this matchBidezarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.02

Ardoi

1.37

Bidezarra

1.02

Ardoi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

1.35

creates per match

1.09

0.96

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ardoi

1.35

Bidezarra

1.09

allows per match

Ardoi

0.96

Bidezarra

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par

Bidezarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Bidezarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw

72%

Ardoi or Bidezarra

73%

Draw or Bidezarra

55%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+

21%

Bidezarra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals

75%

Ardoi 2+ goals

40%

Ardoi 3+ goals

16%

Bidezarra 1+ goals

64%

Bidezarra 2+ goals

27%

Bidezarra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)

62%

Bidezarra (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Bidezarra away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Bidezarra defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bidezarra attack 1.09 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ardoi scores more

45%

level

27%

Bidezarra scores more

28%

Ardoi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff