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Ardoi vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Ardoi
Ardoi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 30Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ardoi46%
×Draw27%
Beti Onak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardoi
1.43
Beti Onak
1.04

Ardoi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ardoi
1.35
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Ardoi
0.96
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw
73%
Ardoi or Beti Onak
73%
Draw or Beti Onak
54%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+
22%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals
76%
Ardoi 2+ goals
42%
Ardoi 3+ goals
17%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
65%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
28%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)
63%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ardoi scores more
46%
level
27%
Beti Onak scores more
27%

Ardoi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ardoi vs Beti Onak

Ardoi beat Beti Onak 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Pinar 1 in Zizur Mayor.