Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ardoi vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Ardoi
Ardoi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
4/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 30Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ardoi48%
×Draw27%
Beti Kozkor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardoi
1.45
Beti Kozkor
0.98

Ardoi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

creates per match

Ardoi
1.35
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Ardoi
0.96
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw
74%
Ardoi or Beti Kozkor
73%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
52%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+
24%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals
77%
Ardoi 2+ goals
42%
Ardoi 3+ goals
18%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
62%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
26%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)
65%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ardoi scores more
48%
level
27%
Beti Kozkor scores more
26%

Ardoi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Ardoi 2–2 Beti Kozkor

Ardoi and Beti Kozkor drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Pinar 1 in Zizur Mayor.