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Ardoi vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Ardoi
Ardoi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
9/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ardoi58%
×Draw24%
Atlético Artajonés18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardoi
1.69
Atlético Artajonés
0.82

Ardoi creates 106% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ardoi
1.35
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Ardoi
0.96
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw
82%
Ardoi or Atlético Artajonés
76%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
42%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+
32%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals
82%
Ardoi 2+ goals
50%
Ardoi 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)
76%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ardoi scores more
58%
level
24%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
18%

Ardoi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ardoi vs Atlético Artajonés

Ardoi and Atlético Artajonés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Pinar 1 in Zizur Mayor.