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Ardea vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ardea
Ardea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
11/19/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ardea37%
×Draw31%
San Marzano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardea
1.05
San Marzano
0.94

Ardea creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ardea
0.82
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Ardea
1.18
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Ardea+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardea ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ardea or draw
68%
Ardea or San Marzano
69%
Draw or San Marzano
63%

Winning margin

Ardea wins by 2+
15%
San Marzano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ardea 1+ goals
65%
Ardea 2+ goals
28%
Ardea 3+ goals
9%
San Marzano 1+ goals
61%
San Marzano 2+ goals
24%
San Marzano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ardea (draw refunded)
54%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardea attack 0.82 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Ardea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ardea scores more
37%
level
31%
San Marzano scores more
32%

Ardea at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ardea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ardea 1–1 San Marzano

Ardea and San Marzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi in Ardea.