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Ardea vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ardea
Ardea
FT
3 – 2
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
12/16/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ardea38%
×Draw28%
Latte Dolce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardea
1.21
Latte Dolce
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ardea
0.82
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Ardea
1.18
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Ardea+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardea ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ardea or draw
66%
Ardea or Latte Dolce
72%
Draw or Latte Dolce
62%

Winning margin

Ardea wins by 2+
16%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ardea 1+ goals
70%
Ardea 2+ goals
34%
Ardea 3+ goals
12%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
68%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
32%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ardea (draw refunded)
52%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardea attack 0.82 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Ardea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ardea scores more
38%
level
28%
Latte Dolce scores more
34%

Ardea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ardea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ardea 3–2 Latte Dolce

Ardea beat Latte Dolce 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi in Ardea.