Ardea 0–3 Flaminia: Result & Stats

Ardea

FT

0 – 3

Flaminia

2/18/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 23Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ardea27%

×Draw27%

Flaminia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArdeaExpected goals in this matchFlaminia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.42

Ardea

1.03

Flaminia

1.42

Flaminia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.82

creates per match

1.65

1.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ardea

0.82

Flaminia

1.65

allows per match

Ardea

1.18

Flaminia

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ardea+0.00on par

Flaminia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardea ↓

Flaminia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ardea or draw

54%

Ardea or Flaminia

73%

Draw or Flaminia

73%

Winning margin

Ardea wins by 2+

10%

Flaminia wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ardea 1+ goals

64%

Ardea 2+ goals

28%

Ardea 3+ goals

9%

Flaminia 1+ goals

76%

Flaminia 2+ goals

41%

Flaminia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ardea (draw refunded)

37%

Flaminia (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Flaminia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardea attack 0.82 + Flaminia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Flaminia attack 1.65 + Ardea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ardea scores more

27%

level

27%

Flaminia scores more

46%

Flaminia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flaminia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff