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Årdal vs Sogndal II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
2 – 0
Sogndal II
Sogndal II
8/15/20213. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 2Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Årdal64%
×Draw18%
Sogndal II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.50
Sogndal II
1.28

Årdal creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Årdal
0.86
Sogndal II
0.86

allows per match

Årdal
1.71
Sogndal II
4.14

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Sogndal II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Sogndal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
82%
Årdal or Sogndal II
82%
Draw or Sogndal II
36%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
42%
Sogndal II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
92%
Årdal 2+ goals
71%
Årdal 3+ goals
45%
Sogndal II 1+ goals
72%
Sogndal II 2+ goals
37%
Sogndal II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
78%
Sogndal II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Sogndal II away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 0.86 + Sogndal II defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sogndal II attack 0.86 + Årdal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Årdal scores more
64%
level
18%
Sogndal II scores more
18%

Årdal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Årdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Årdal vs Sogndal II

Årdal beat Sogndal II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Jotun Stadion in Øvre Årdal.