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Årdal vs Lysekloster — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Årdal
Årdal
CANC
14:00
Lysekloster
Lysekloster
10/3/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 9Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Årdal24%
×Draw22%
Lysekloster54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
1.22
Lysekloster
1.93

Lysekloster creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Årdal
0.86
Lysekloster
2.14

allows per match

Årdal
1.71
Lysekloster
1.57

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Lysekloster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
46%
Årdal or Lysekloster
78%
Draw or Lysekloster
76%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
10%
Lysekloster wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
70%
Årdal 2+ goals
34%
Årdal 3+ goals
12%
Lysekloster 1+ goals
85%
Lysekloster 2+ goals
57%
Lysekloster 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
31%
Lysekloster (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 0.86 + Lysekloster defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lysekloster attack 2.14 + Årdal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Årdal scores more
24%
level
22%
Lysekloster scores more
54%

Lysekloster at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Årdal vs Lysekloster — Match Preview

Årdal face Lysekloster on October 3, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Årdal host Lysekloster at Jotun Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.