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Årdal vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Årdal
Årdal
CANC
11:00
Frigg
Frigg
10/31/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Årdal12%
×Draw16%
Frigg73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
1.00
Frigg
2.71

Frigg creates 171% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Årdal
0.86
Frigg
3.71

allows per match

Årdal
1.71
Frigg
1.14

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
27%
Årdal or Frigg
84%
Draw or Frigg
88%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
4%
Frigg wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
63%
Årdal 2+ goals
26%
Årdal 3+ goals
8%
Frigg 1+ goals
93%
Frigg 2+ goals
75%
Frigg 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
14%
Frigg (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Frigg away — creates 3.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 0.86 + Frigg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Frigg attack 3.71 + Årdal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Årdal scores more
12%
level
16%
Frigg scores more
73%

Frigg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Årdal host Frigg

October 31, 2020: Årdal take on Frigg in 3. Division - Girone 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.