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Årdal vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Frøya
Frøya
J. Kazacoks 83'
T. R. Honnas 53'
T. Hovland 50', 15'
E. Voster 72'
4/27/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 4Jotun kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal47%
×Draw18%
Frøya35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.75
Frøya
2.37

Årdal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Årdal
2.85
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Årdal
3.08
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
65%
Årdal or Frøya
82%
Draw or Frøya
53%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
29%
Frøya wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
93%
Årdal 2+ goals
75%
Årdal 3+ goals
51%
Frøya 1+ goals
91%
Frøya 2+ goals
68%
Frøya 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
58%
Frøya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.75

Frøya attack 1.65 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Årdal scores more
47%
level
18%
Frøya scores more
35%

Årdal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Årdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
T. Hovland
50'
T. Hovland
53'
T. R. Honnas
72'
E. Voster
83'
J. Kazacoks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Årdal vs Frøya

Årdal beat Frøya 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Hovland (15', 50'), T. R. Honnas (53'), E. Voster (72'), J. Kazacoks (83').

The match was played at Jotun kunstgras in Øvre Årdal.