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Årdal vs Bjarg — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Årdal
Årdal
CANC
14:00
Bjarg
Bjarg
10/17/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 11Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Årdal18%
×Draw19%
Bjarg63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
1.17
Bjarg
2.33

Bjarg creates 99% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Årdal
0.86
Bjarg
2.95

allows per match

Årdal
1.71
Bjarg
1.47

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Bjarg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
37%
Årdal or Bjarg
81%
Draw or Bjarg
82%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
7%
Bjarg wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
69%
Årdal 2+ goals
33%
Årdal 3+ goals
11%
Bjarg 1+ goals
90%
Bjarg 2+ goals
67%
Bjarg 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
22%
Bjarg (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Bjarg away — creates 2.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 0.86 + Bjarg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bjarg attack 2.95 + Årdal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Årdal scores more
18%
level
19%
Bjarg scores more
63%

Bjarg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Årdal face Bjarg (3. Division - Girone 4)

3. Division - Girone 4 returns with Årdal hosting Bjarg. Match starts October 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Årdal host Bjarg at Jotun Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.