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Årdal vs Askøy — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Askøy
Askøy
6/29/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 13Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal42%
×Draw19%
Askøy39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.42
Askøy
2.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Årdal
2.85
Askøy
1.62

allows per match

Årdal
3.08
Askøy
2.00

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Askøy+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Askøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
61%
Årdal or Askøy
81%
Draw or Askøy
58%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
24%
Askøy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
91%
Årdal 2+ goals
69%
Årdal 3+ goals
43%
Askøy 1+ goals
90%
Askøy 2+ goals
68%
Askøy 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
51%
Askøy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Askøy away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Askøy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Askøy attack 1.62 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Årdal scores more
42%
level
19%
Askøy scores more
39%

Årdal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Årdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Årdal vs Askøy

Askøy beat Årdal 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Jotun Stadion in Øvre Årdal.