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Arda Kardzhali vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
1/14/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Rodopi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Arda Kardzhali53%
×Draw26%
Maritsa Plovdiv21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.54
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.87

Arda Kardzhali creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.10

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.64
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.50

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
79%
Arda Kardzhali or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
47%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
28%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
79%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
45%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
20%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
58%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
22%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
71%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.57 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.10 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
53%
level
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
21%

Arda Kardzhali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Arda Kardzhali 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rodopi in Momchilgrad.