Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Arda Kardzhali

Preview

15:00

Lokomotiv Sofia

8/15/2026

First League · Round 5Arena Arda

Big match

48%

Arda Kardzhali

model favours

48%26%26%

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Arda Kardzhali48%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv Sofia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Arda Kardzhali

1.52

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.04

Arda Kardzhali creates 46% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 88 away

1.45

creates per match

0.98

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.98

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

74%

Arda Kardzhali or Lokomotiv Sofia

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia

52%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

24%

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

78%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

45%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

20%

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

65%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

65%

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.98 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

48%

level

26%

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

26%

Arda Kardzhali at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Kardzhali

LDLWL

Sofia

DDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff