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Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia — Second League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
3/30/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali50%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Sofia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.39
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.85

Arda Kardzhali creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.37

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.33
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.10

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
77%
Arda Kardzhali or Lokomotiv Sofia
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia
50%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
24%
Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
75%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
40%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
68%
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.37 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
50%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
23%

Arda Kardzhali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Lokomotiv Sofia

Arda Kardzhali beat Lokomotiv Sofia 2-0 in Second League on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Arena Arda (Kardzhali).