Arda Kardzhali 4–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Arda Kardzhali

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

11/23/2024

First League · Round 16Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali43%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Arda Kardzhali

1.38

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.13

Arda Kardzhali creates 22% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

1.45

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

69%

Arda Kardzhali or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

57%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

20%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

75%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

40%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

31%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

58%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

43%

level

27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

31%

Arda Kardzhali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff