Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia

Arda Kardzhali

Preview

15:00

Levski Sofia

10/24/2026

First League · Round 12Arena Arda

Big match

38%

Levski Sofia

model favours

35%27%38%

Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali35%

×Draw27%

Levski Sofia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.26

Arda Kardzhali

1.19

Levski Sofia

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 138 away

1.45

creates per match

1.41

1.11

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Levski Sofia

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

62%

Arda Kardzhali or Levski Sofia

73%

Draw or Levski Sofia

65%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

14%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

70%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

33%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

12%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

72%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

36%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

48%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

35%

level

27%

Levski Sofia scores more

38%

Levski Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Levski Sofia score first in only 33% of matches
Levski Sofia have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Both teams score in only 28% of Levski Sofia’s matches
67% of Levski Sofia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Levski Sofia win just 51% against the top half (vs 88% against the bottom)
36% of Levski Sofia’s goals come after the 75th minute