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Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
Preview
15:00
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
8/29/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Arena Arda
Big match
53%
Arda Kardzhali
model favours
53%24%23%

Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali53%
×Draw24%
Botev Vratsa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Botev Vratsa
1.02

Arda Kardzhali creates 64% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
77%
Arda Kardzhali or Botev Vratsa
76%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
47%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
28%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
81%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
50%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
23%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
64%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
27%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
69%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
53%
level
24%
Botev Vratsa scores more
23%

Arda Kardzhali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Botev Vratsa score first in only 20% of matches
  • Botev Vratsa have scored in 7 games running
  • Arda Kardzhali fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Botev Vratsa fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Arda Kardzhali
Defensively solid
Botev Vratsa
Defensively solid
48%Possession45%
74%Pass accuracy80%
7.2ShotsBiggest gap5.7
1.06xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Arda Kardzhali
2
Draws
4
Botev Vratsa
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
0–10–13–20–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Kardzhali
LDLWL
Vratsa
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arda Kardzhali face Botev Vratsa (First League)

First League returns with Arda Kardzhali hosting Botev Vratsa. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arda Kardzhali host Botev Vratsa at Arena Arda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.