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Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
CANC
00:00
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arda Kardzhali48%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.54
Botev Vratsa
1.07

Arda Kardzhali creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Botev Vratsa
1.50

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.64
Botev Vratsa
1.50

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
74%
Arda Kardzhali or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
52%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
24%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
79%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
45%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
20%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
66%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
65%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.57 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botev Vratsa attack 1.50 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
48%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
26%

Arda Kardzhali at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arda Kardzhali face Botev Vratsa (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Arda Kardzhali hosting Botev Vratsa. Match starts July 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arda Kardzhali host Botev Vratsa at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.