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Arcos vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
CANC
00:00
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos40%
×Draw30%
San Roque Lepe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.13
San Roque Lepe
0.94

Arcos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
70%
Arcos or San Roque Lepe
70%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
60%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
17%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
68%
Arcos 2+ goals
31%
Arcos 3+ goals
11%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
61%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
24%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
57%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arcos scores more
40%
level
30%
San Roque Lepe scores more
30%

Arcos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arcos face San Roque Lepe (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Arcos hosting San Roque Lepe. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arcos host San Roque Lepe at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.