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Arcos vs Puente Genil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
CANC
00:00
Puente Genil
Puente Genil
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos35%
×Draw29%
Puente Genil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.10
Puente Genil
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 92 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Puente Genil
1.33

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Puente Genil
1.23

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Puente Genil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
64%
Arcos or Puente Genil
71%
Draw or Puente Genil
65%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
14%
Puente Genil wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
67%
Arcos 2+ goals
30%
Arcos 3+ goals
10%
Puente Genil 1+ goals
67%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
30%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
50%
Puente Genil (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arcos scores more
35%
level
29%
Puente Genil scores more
36%

Puente Genil at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arcos vs Puente Genil — Match Preview

Arcos face Puente Genil on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arcos host Puente Genil at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.