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Arcos vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
2/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos44%
×Draw29%
Pozoblanco27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.27
Pozoblanco
0.92

Arcos creates 38% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 109 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Pozoblanco
0.94

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Pozoblanco
1.58

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Pozoblanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
73%
Arcos or Pozoblanco
71%
Draw or Pozoblanco
56%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
20%
Pozoblanco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
72%
Arcos 2+ goals
36%
Arcos 3+ goals
14%
Pozoblanco 1+ goals
60%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
23%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
62%
Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arcos scores more
44%
level
29%
Pozoblanco scores more
27%

Arcos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Arcos 2–1 Pozoblanco

Arcos beat Pozoblanco 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.