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Arcos vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos51%
×Draw26%
Los Barrios23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.48
Los Barrios
0.90

Arcos creates 64% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 42 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
77%
Arcos or Los Barrios
74%
Draw or Los Barrios
49%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
26%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
77%
Arcos 2+ goals
43%
Arcos 3+ goals
19%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
59%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
23%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
69%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arcos scores more
51%
level
26%
Los Barrios scores more
23%

Arcos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arcos 2 – 1 Los Barrios

Arcos beat Los Barrios 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.