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Arcos vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceuta
Ceuta
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arcos27%
×Draw33%
Ceuta40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
0.78
Ceuta
1.01

Ceuta creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
60%
Arcos or Ceuta
67%
Draw or Ceuta
73%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
9%
Ceuta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
54%
Arcos 2+ goals
18%
Arcos 3+ goals
4%
Ceuta 1+ goals
64%
Ceuta 2+ goals
27%
Ceuta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
41%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.78

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arcos scores more
27%
level
33%
Ceuta scores more
40%

Ceuta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Arcos 0–0 Ceuta

Arcos and Ceuta drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.