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Arcos vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Arcos
Arcos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cabecense
Cabecense
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arcos53%
×Draw28%
Cabecense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arcos
1.38
Cabecense
0.70

Arcos creates 97% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Arcos
0.97
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Arcos
0.90
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Arcos+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arcos ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arcos or draw
81%
Arcos or Cabecense
72%
Draw or Cabecense
47%

Winning margin

Arcos wins by 2+
26%
Cabecense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arcos 1+ goals
75%
Arcos 2+ goals
40%
Arcos 3+ goals
16%
Cabecense 1+ goals
50%
Cabecense 2+ goals
16%
Cabecense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arcos (draw refunded)
74%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arcos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arcos attack 0.97 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Arcos defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arcos scores more
53%
level
28%
Cabecense scores more
19%

Arcos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arcos vs Cabecense

Cabecense beat Arcos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.