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Archena Sport vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
3/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport37%
×Draw25%
Real Murcia II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.40
Real Murcia II
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
62%
Archena Sport or Real Murcia II
75%
Draw or Real Murcia II
63%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
17%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
75%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
41%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
17%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
76%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
42%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
49%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Archena Sport scores more
37%
level
25%
Real Murcia II scores more
38%

Real Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 5 – 0 Real Murcia II

Archena Sport beat Real Murcia II 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.