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Archena Sport vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Sergio Cases 90+4' (pen)
David Valdeolivas 47'
Belencoso 8'
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport37%
×Draw26%
La Unión Atlético37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.38
La Unión Atlético
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
63%
Archena Sport or La Unión Atlético
74%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
63%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
17%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
75%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
40%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
16%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
75%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
40%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
50%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Archena Sport scores more
37%
level
26%
La Unión Atlético scores more
37%

Archena Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Belencoso
47'
David Valdeolivas
49'
Antonio Martínez← Cristóbal
55'
David Vera← Jose Vegara
65'
Omar Saura← Nico González
72'
Andrés Vidal← Alejo Nahuel
75'
Álex Jiménez← Omar Saura
88'
Francisco Matallana← Chema
90+4'
Sergio CasesPenalty
Archena
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
David Valdeolivas
⚽
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
⚽
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
Emilio Romero
Romero
Richard
Richard
Felipe Pires
Pires
Diego
Diego
Antonio Hornero
Hornero
Cristóbal
▼
Cristóbal
Sergio Cases
⚽
Cases
Alejo Nahuel
▼
Nahuel
Fabio
Fabio
Jose Vegara
▼
Vegara
Joshua Danjuma
Danjuma
Jorge Perona
Manager: Jorge Perona
49'▲Antonio Martínez←▼Cristóbal
55'▲David Vera←▼Jose Vegara
72'▲Andrés Vidal←▼Alejo Nahuel

Archena Sport substitutes

MartínezVeraVidal
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
65'▲Omar Saura←▼Nico González
75'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Omar Saura
88'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

SauraJiménezMatallana

Archena Sport 1 – 2 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Archena Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 13, 2021.

Goals: Belencoso (8'), David Valdeolivas (47'), Sergio Cases (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.