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Archena Sport vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport44%
×Draw24%
El Palmar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.61
El Palmar
1.34

Archena Sport creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
68%
Archena Sport or El Palmar
76%
Draw or El Palmar
56%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
22%
El Palmar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
80%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
48%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
22%
El Palmar 1+ goals
74%
El Palmar 2+ goals
39%
El Palmar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
58%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Archena Sport scores more
44%
level
24%
El Palmar scores more
32%

Archena Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 3 – 0 El Palmar

Archena Sport beat El Palmar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.