Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Archena Sport vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport43%
×Draw24%
Deportiva Minera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.60
Deportiva Minera
1.36

Archena Sport creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
67%
Archena Sport or Deportiva Minera
76%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
57%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
22%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
80%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
47%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
22%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
74%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
39%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Archena Sport scores more
43%
level
24%
Deportiva Minera scores more
33%

Archena Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 0 – 3 Deportiva Minera

Deportiva Minera beat Archena Sport 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.