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Archena Sport vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bullense
Bullense
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport53%
×Draw23%
Bullense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.89
Bullense
1.21

Archena Sport creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Bullense
2.13

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
76%
Archena Sport or Bullense
77%
Draw or Bullense
47%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
30%
Bullense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
85%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
56%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
29%
Bullense 1+ goals
70%
Bullense 2+ goals
34%
Bullense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
69%
Bullense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bullense attack 0.78 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Archena Sport scores more
53%
level
23%
Bullense scores more
24%

Archena Sport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 1 – 2 Bullense

Bullense beat Archena Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.