Arbroath 0–2 Motherwell: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Arbroath

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Motherwell

1/21/2023

FA Cup · 4th RoundGayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arbroath35%

×Draw27%

Motherwell38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Arbroath

1.25

Motherwell

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.38

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Arbroath

1.38

Motherwell

1.63

allows per match

Arbroath

1.00

Motherwell

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Motherwell →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

62%

Arbroath or Motherwell

73%

Draw or Motherwell

65%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

15%

Motherwell wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

71%

Arbroath 2+ goals

36%

Arbroath 3+ goals

13%

Motherwell 1+ goals

73%

Motherwell 2+ goals

38%

Motherwell 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

48%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 1.38 + Motherwell defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Motherwell attack 1.63 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arbroath scores more

35%

level

27%

Motherwell scores more

38%

Motherwell at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff