Arbroath 1–3 Hibernian: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Arbroath

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hibernian

C. Wighton 6'

C. Mueller 87'

K. Nisbet 71'

D. Mitchell 20'

2/13/2022

FA Cup · 5th RoundGayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arbroath31%

×Draw26%

Hibernian43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchHibernian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.43

Arbroath

1.16

Hibernian

1.43

Hibernian creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.86

1.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Arbroath

1.38

Hibernian

1.86

allows per match

Arbroath

1.00

Hibernian

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Hibernian →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

57%

Arbroath or Hibernian

74%

Draw or Hibernian

69%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

12%

Hibernian wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

69%

Arbroath 2+ goals

32%

Arbroath 3+ goals

11%

Hibernian 1+ goals

76%

Hibernian 2+ goals

42%

Hibernian 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

41%

Hibernian (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 1.38 + Hibernian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hibernian attack 1.86 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arbroath scores more

31%

level

26%

Hibernian scores more

43%

Hibernian at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

C. Wighton↳ C. Hamilton

11'

R. Bushiri

20'

D. Mitchell↳ L. Stevenson

38'

M. McKenna

65'

C. Mueller← S. Jasper

68'

K. Nisbet

70'

N. Low← L. Henderson

71'

K. Nisbet↳ E. Henderson

76'

D. Mitchell

78'

J. Campbell← D. Mitchell

83'

D. Wright← E. Henderson

83'

C. Doidge← K. Nisbet

87'

C. Mueller

89'

M. Bakare← J. Hamilton

89'

L. Donnelly← C. Wighton

89'

S. Ford← C. Hamilton

Arbroath

Hibernian

⚽

▼

Mitchell

Doyle-Hay

▼

Henderson

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wighton

▼

Hamilton

Manager: D. Campbell

70'▲N. Low←▼L. Henderson

89'▲M. Bakare←▼J. Hamilton

89'▲L. Donnelly←▼C. Wighton

89'▲S. Ford←▼C. Hamilton

Arbroath substitutes

6Low17Bakare15Donnelly16Ford7Gold9Hilson21Antell11Linn10Swankie

Manager: S. Maloney

65'▲C. Mueller←▼S. Jasper

78'▲J. Campbell←▼D. Mitchell

83'▲D. Wright←▼E. Henderson

83'▲C. Doidge←▼K. Nisbet

Hibernian substitutes

14Mueller32Campbell8Wright9Doidge31Mitchell21Dąbrowski24McGregor23Allan25Scott34Melkersen

Match Recap: Arbroath vs Hibernian

Hibernian beat Arbroath 3-1 in FA Cup on February 13, 2022.

Goals: C. Wighton (6'), D. Mitchell (20'), K. Nisbet (71'), C. Mueller (87').

The match was played at Gayfield Park in Arbroath.

Arbroath vs Hibernian — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arbroath vs Hibernian