Arbroath 2–1 Elgin City: Result & Stats

Arbroath

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elgin City

7/13/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Gayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arbroath77%

×Draw14%

Elgin City9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.90

Arbroath

2.90

Elgin City

0.90

Arbroath creates 222% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.47

creates per match

0.73

1.07

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Arbroath

2.47

Elgin City

0.73

allows per match

Arbroath

1.07

Elgin City

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Elgin City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

91%

Arbroath or Elgin City

86%

Draw or Elgin City

23%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

57%

Elgin City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

94%

Arbroath 2+ goals

78%

Arbroath 3+ goals

54%

Elgin City 1+ goals

59%

Elgin City 2+ goals

23%

Elgin City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

90%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Elgin City away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 2.47 + Elgin City defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.90

Elgin City attack 0.73 + Arbroath defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Arbroath scores more

77%

level

14%

Elgin City scores more

9%

Arbroath at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff