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Arbroath vs East Fife — League Cup 2018

Arbroath
Arbroath
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Fife
East Fife
7/14/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Gayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arbroath75%
×Draw16%
East Fife9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbroath
2.49
East Fife
0.74

Arbroath creates 236% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arbroath
2.47
East Fife
0.42

allows per match

Arbroath
1.07
East Fife
2.50

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw
91%
Arbroath or East Fife
84%
Draw or East Fife
25%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+
53%
East Fife wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals
92%
Arbroath 2+ goals
71%
Arbroath 3+ goals
45%
East Fife 1+ goals
52%
East Fife 2+ goals
17%
East Fife 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)
89%
East Fife (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 2.47 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.49

East Fife attack 0.42 + Arbroath defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Arbroath scores more
75%
level
16%
East Fife scores more
9%

Arbroath at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arbroath vs East Fife

Arbroath beat East Fife 2-0 in League Cup on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Gayfield Park in Arbroath.