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Arbroath vs Dunfermline — League Cup 2018

Arbroath
Arbroath
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
11/28/2020League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundGayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arbroath46%
×Draw23%
Dunfermline31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbroath
1.85
Dunfermline
1.50

Arbroath creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arbroath
2.47
Dunfermline
1.94

allows per match

Arbroath
1.07
Dunfermline
1.22

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw
69%
Arbroath or Dunfermline
77%
Draw or Dunfermline
54%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+
25%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals
84%
Arbroath 2+ goals
55%
Arbroath 3+ goals
28%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
78%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
44%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)
59%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 2.47 + Dunfermline defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dunfermline attack 1.94 + Arbroath defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arbroath scores more
46%
level
23%
Dunfermline scores more
31%

Arbroath at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arbroath vs Dunfermline

Dunfermline beat Arbroath 3-1 in League Cup on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Gayfield Park in Arbroath.