Arbroath 3–0 Darvel: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Arbroath

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Darvel

1/22/2022

FA Cup · 4th RoundGayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arbroath29%

×Draw23%

Darvel48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchDarvel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.77

Arbroath

1.32

Darvel

1.77

Darvel creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

2.55

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Arbroath

1.38

Darvel

2.55

allows per match

Arbroath

1.00

Darvel

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Darvel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Darvel →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

52%

Arbroath or Darvel

77%

Draw or Darvel

71%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

12%

Darvel wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

73%

Arbroath 2+ goals

38%

Arbroath 3+ goals

15%

Darvel 1+ goals

83%

Darvel 2+ goals

53%

Darvel 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

37%

Darvel (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Darvel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 1.38 + Darvel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Darvel attack 2.55 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arbroath scores more

29%

level

23%

Darvel scores more

48%

Darvel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Darvel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff