Arbroath 3–0 Airdrie United: Result & Stats

Arbroath

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Airdrie United

7/23/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 8Gayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arbroath59%

×Draw20%

Airdrie United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchAirdrie United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.31

Arbroath

2.29

Airdrie United

1.31

Arbroath creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

2.47

creates per match

1.56

1.07

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Arbroath

2.47

Airdrie United

1.56

allows per match

Arbroath

1.07

Airdrie United

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Airdrie United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

79%

Arbroath or Airdrie United

80%

Draw or Airdrie United

41%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

37%

Airdrie United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

90%

Arbroath 2+ goals

66%

Arbroath 3+ goals

40%

Airdrie United 1+ goals

73%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

38%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

74%

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Airdrie United away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 2.47 + Airdrie United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.29

Airdrie United attack 1.56 + Arbroath defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arbroath scores more

59%

level

20%

Airdrie United scores more

21%

Arbroath at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff