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Árborg vs Kári — Cup 2019

Árborg
Árborg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Kári
Kári
4/6/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Árborg58%
×Draw18%
Kári24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Árborg
2.77
Kári
1.77

Árborg creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Árborg
2.80
Kári
1.75

allows per match

Árborg
1.80
Kári
2.75

finishing

Árborg+0.00on par
Kári+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Árborg ↓

Kári →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Árborg or draw
76%
Árborg or Kári
82%
Draw or Kári
42%

Winning margin

Árborg wins by 2+
38%
Kári wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Árborg 1+ goals
94%
Árborg 2+ goals
76%
Árborg 3+ goals
51%
Kári 1+ goals
83%
Kári 2+ goals
53%
Kári 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Árborg (draw refunded)
71%
Kári (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Árborg at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kári away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Árborg attack 2.80 + Kári defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.77

Kári attack 1.75 + Árborg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Árborg scores more
58%
level
18%
Kári scores more
24%

Árborg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Árborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Árborg 1–3 Kári

Kári beat Árborg 3-1 in Cup on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.