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Árborg vs Augnablik — Cup 2019

Árborg
Árborg
FT
0 – 0
Augnablik
Augnablik
6/7/2020CupCup · 1st RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Árborg26%
×Draw18%
Augnablik56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Árborg
2.06
Augnablik
2.98

Augnablik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Árborg
2.80
Augnablik
4.17

allows per match

Árborg
1.80
Augnablik
1.33

finishing

Árborg+0.00on par
Augnablik+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Árborg ↓

Augnablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Árborg or draw
44%
Árborg or Augnablik
82%
Draw or Augnablik
74%

Winning margin

Árborg wins by 2+
13%
Augnablik wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Árborg 1+ goals
87%
Árborg 2+ goals
61%
Árborg 3+ goals
34%
Augnablik 1+ goals
95%
Augnablik 2+ goals
79%
Augnablik 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Árborg (draw refunded)
32%
Augnablik (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Árborg at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Augnablik away — creates 4.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Árborg attack 2.80 + Augnablik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Augnablik attack 4.17 + Árborg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Árborg scores more
26%
level
18%
Augnablik scores more
56%

Augnablik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Augnablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Árborg 0–0 Augnablik

Árborg and Augnablik drew 0-0 in Cup on June 7, 2020.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.