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Árborg vs Árbær — Cup 2019

Árborg
Árborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Árbær
Árbær
4/13/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Árborg67%
×Draw15%
Árbær18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Árborg
3.40
Árbær
1.80

Árborg creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Árborg
2.80
Árbær
1.80

allows per match

Árborg
1.80
Árbær
4.00

finishing

Árborg+0.00on par
Árbær+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Árborg ↓

Árbær →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Árborg or draw
82%
Árborg or Árbær
85%
Draw or Árbær
33%

Winning margin

Árborg wins by 2+
48%
Árbær wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Árborg 1+ goals
96%
Árborg 2+ goals
84%
Árborg 3+ goals
64%
Árbær 1+ goals
83%
Árbær 2+ goals
54%
Árbær 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Árborg (draw refunded)
79%
Árbær (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Árborg at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Árbær away — creates 1.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Árborg attack 2.80 + Árbær defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.40

Árbær attack 1.80 + Árborg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Árborg scores more
67%
level
15%
Árbær scores more
18%

Árborg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Árborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Árborg 1–2 Árbær

Árbær beat Árborg 2-1 in Cup on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.